Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Bubble or not?

Bubble or not?

For news I read from the net, I keep doubt: the next round booming of housing is comming in addvance earlier than expected due to the comming up of the 2008 Olympic construction together with eager anticipation on the Yuan's appreciation, after only 4 for 5 months of Central Government's universal Adjustment and Control policy ?

Put this aside for a while.

The attitudes on housing issue by the U.S government and China is different. Mr. Greespan, who will be outgoing next January, not only one time warranted of housing bubble, in the States, of course. Whilst another side of the globe only stated that housing in some parts of area is a bit over-heated. You can't find bubble in the Official Central's main-stream media. Never.

The definition of "Bubble" might be different in the two dictionary. Considering that ten-year's salary of a family in the States can afford a median-price existing home($220,000 for existing homes, $500,000 for new homes), while in China you may probably work double time, or, be paid double. This is the least fact. Forget to mention that, salary mentioned here for the States is estimated for the Lowest living standard.

It appears that you, by yourself is to make a judgement: for the time being, work for the Bank or get the profit?

Back to the point: bubble or not?

The decade-long housing boom may not be over yet, but it's showing the first signs of slackening. Prices are off their peaks in a few markets, such as Shanghai; the rate of price increases has slowed in hotbeds such as Shanghai and Beijing; and houses are staying on the market longer.

Places where prices fall a lot will feel the hit, of course. But the greatest economic impact may not come where prices slide the most. Instead, the regions that see the most pain probably will be those where homebuilding has been a major source of new jobs. A decline in housing could accelerate job losses in the entire local economy. Up to date, in China, suburban coolies laid off from farming field have been consisting for many years since the beginning of the booming the main body of the workers on construction site, as well as their partners, city guys, who yield intellectual outputs, e.g.,drawings, main facilities, contributed the rest of the construction group.

Regions that are heavily dependent on housing for employment growth will suffer more than most when a downturn comes. And there's no doubt that a reversal in the market will come eventually. Nationally, the economy's dependence on housing is worrisomely heavy.

Then, we'd think for a while, if price falls, who will suffer most?

Worrys and concerns by then National Main-Stream Media have long been posted and aired over the strong pent-up consumer demand, along with its denial of over-heated housing bubbles.
Has it ever been sorted out that how could one release the demand under the restrictions of Medicare, Education, Employment and plus Housing?

Falling home values are no fun anywhere. But if you want to know which metro areas will really take it on the chin when prices stall out, look for the ones whose jobs depend on it.
Things will be getting worse under the situation of burst-bubble for citilized paid-behind coolies woking hard on their seized land where they used to foster all their hopes, waiting to be covered by the yet-to-be-seen socialized welfare benefits.

So the answer is, bubble but remain un-bursted.


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